What Happens if Trump Refuses to Leave the White House
In a yr of tragic firsts for the country, the unthinkable is ever a possibility.
As an early atomic number 82 began to skid on election night, President Donald Trump prematurely alleged victory, even as former Vice President Joe Biden appeared set to win thanks to an influx of mail-in ballots, received early but counted last in key states.
Trump has since claimed the race was rigged and shows no sign of conceding, leading the Biden campaign to consider outcomes previously thought to exist only the most radical.
"As we said on July 19th, the American people will determine this election," Biden's team said in a argument Friday. "And the United states of america government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House."
And the Hugger-mugger Service would be the ones to do information technology, i former U.Southward. official and two experts told Newsweek.
The scenarios Newsweek discussed with its sources are hypothetical. No network has called the race and the votes are still being counted. Trump has a narrow path to victory in the electoral college. He has never said or implied that he would continue to occupy the White House after exhausting whatsoever legal challenges to the vote.
However, this is what happens when a sitting president doesn't stand up up to pass the baton to his or her successor. Information technology's never been seen earlier in the United States and there is no imminent threat that it volition happen in January, but at that place is a plan in place to foreclose a transition in power crisis.
The 20th Subpoena has it that Trump, or whatsoever other lame-duck leader, loses his presidential mandate January 20 at noon, and, if he tries to stick effectually later on that, the very guard once tasked with protecting the nation's top officeholder now has to evict him.
"The Secret Service would escort him off, they would care for him like whatsoever one-time man who'd wandered on the property," one former official involved in the transition process between former President Barack Obama and Trump told Newsweek.
And whether or not Trump actually attends the Inauguration 24-hour interval ceremony is irrelevant to the actual transfer of authority—in which Trump would besides lose privileged modes of transportation such as the presidential Air Force One and his iconic, fortified limousine, the Beast.
"As of noon of January 2021 the Beast doesn't vest to him, AF1 doesn't belong to him, and the White House doesn't vest to him," quondam U.S. Navy intelligence and counter-terrorism specialist Malcolm Nance told Newsweek.
The system is intentionally built to piece of work independently of the whims of whoever happens to be in the White House at the time.
"The transition process is automated. In that location is no 'practise-it yourself' motility," Nance said. "So if he doesn't take a designated identify, they'll make up one's mind for him. Basically, the systematic things will happen whether he'southward a willing participant or not."
Trump also loses his commander-in-chief status, meaning the Pentagon cannot and will non come to his aid should Biden be sworn in.
"A POTUS becomes the commander-in-chief upon taking the presidential oath of office," a Pentagon spokesperson told Newsweek. "A onetime POTUS does not retain any authorities as they relate to the U.S. Armed forces."
It'south not the military's place to intervene, however. Like the sometime official Newsweek spoke to, Nance besides indicated it would be the Secret Service to remove the president, physically if demand be.
"If he says he will not physically leave the White Firm, they will physically remove him," he added. "They may accept to put hands on him to remove him. They may tell him if he doesn't brand his flying, he may have to contract his own flight."
Such a scenario would be unprecedented. Of the 43 men who preceded Trump in the presidency, 35 take willingly ceded power either because their ii-term limit expired, they lost an election or chose not to run again. Eight died and one quit.
Trump managed to unwillingly make history final yr by being simply the third president to be impeached, but—like Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton before him—the Senate saved Trump from existence ousted.
Overstaying his Oval Role welcome later on an election, however, would truly be unparalleled.
"No sitting president has ever refused to go out role or vacate the White Firm in the form of American history," the White House Historical Clan told Newsweek.
Even if Trump managed to somehow vacate the vote itself, the outcome would probable be unfavorable for him. No avenue exists for him to prolong his assistants nor engage his deputy, Vice President Mike Pence.
Rather, the starting time ever undetermined U.S. election would upshot in the tertiary-in-line assuming the presidency. In this example, that'south Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, an influential Democrat often targeted by Trump'due south rhetoric.
"There is no constitutional provision to extend the term of office," the White Business firm Historical Association said. "If no president has been called by Jan 20, 2021, so the statutory line of succession begins, which means the Speaker of the House ascends to the presidency. The Vice President's term similarly ends at noon on Jan twenty."
Many outlets project Biden is most likely to pull through based on the current count, all the same, and Berggruen Institute Vice President of Programs Nils Gilman said he cannot see Trump participating in the formalities of his predecessors.
"It's hard to imagine Trump graciously welcoming Biden to the White Business firm on the morning of January 20th, then doing the traditional ride with him down Pennsylvania Avenue, then sitting backside him on the podium and politely clapping every bit Biden gets sworn in," Gilman told Newsweek. "Presiding over the ceremonial celebration of his ain political failure doesn't seem at all in character."
Trump'southward absence, Gilman argued, would not merely fuel more partisan grouse simply also introduce dangerous new precedents for hereafter leaders who potentially would not excogitate of such a intermission in tradition.
"This would indeed exist all the same another example of how Trump is systematically breaking the norms that make felicitous governance and cooperative policymaking possible—in this case by traducing the symbolic functioning of the idea that the US regime is a government of all Americans, not just the government of a single party," Gilman said.
2020, a twelvemonth divers past the COVID-nineteen pandemic, civil unrest and economic turmoil, has painfully demonstrated the limits of saying "never," and opened up an array of discourse on a number of doomsday scenarios.
In fact, an incumbent Trump unwilling to walk away has already been imagined by Gilman and other experts concerned nigh the potential for a break in the Us' and then far uninterrupted democracy.
Before this year, Gilman and Georgetown Law professor Rosa Brooks established the Transition Integrity Projection, an exercise involving a bipartisan group of experienced individuals from various government, media and academic backgrounds to establish iv scenarios for the 2020 election.
These involved Biden winning the electoral and popular votes past a healthy margin, Biden winning the two metrics by a narrow margin, Trump winning the sometime but losing the latter and a too shut to call case where the victor is not established the following day.
Needless to say, the final scenario has become reality, as did predictions of widespread efforts by the Trump campaign and friendly media to amplify "stolen election" and "voter fraud" narratives.
This hypothetical series of events quickly turns ugly, with Trump refusing to concede and mass nationwide demonstrations potentially turning trigger-happy as a new incertitude grips an already tumultuous land. Trump presents himself equally the "constabulary and order" option.
Despite these attempts to overturn his rival'southward victory through propaganda and social media smears, officials and even some Republicans quietly brainstorm to discuss bankroll Biden and, past the time the president-elect is certified past lawmakers on Jan half dozen and Inauguration Solar day arrives 2 weeks later, it'south clear that Trump no longer has the backing of the U.S. regime.
"Biden's electoral victory was certified merely Trump refused to get out the White House. He began to burn documents and potentially incriminating evidence, and connected to launch attacks against the legitimacy of the election. President Trump released a serial of pardons for members of his administration every bit well as himself earlier the Secret Service escorted him out of the White House," the scenario goes.
"But the Surreptitious Service demonstrated its 'culture of professionalism' (equally one fellow member of the Federal Government Team indicated) by indicating that it would be 'loyal to the office, not to the
person' and therefore information technology would escort Trump out of the White House on Jan 20," it continued.
Speaking to Newsweek in light of recent events, Brooks stood by this assessment.
"If Biden is projected to win and is and then formally certified every bit the winner in the Articulation Session of Congress on Jan 6, he is officially going to be the adjacent President, whether Trump concedes or not," she said. "Once Biden is sworn in on inauguration twenty-four hour period, ability transfers to him, and the Secret Service will indeed escort sometime President Trump out of the White House."
Her colleague, Gilman, agreed.
"As to Trump refusing to leave the White Business firm physically, I must say that I observe this to be an exceedingly unlikely turn of events," he told Newsweek. "At some point the Hugger-mugger Service volition but escort him out."
The White Firm and Cloak-and-dagger Service did not reply to Newsweek'due south request for comment.
This commodity has been updated to include comments by Berggruen Institute Vice President of Programs Nils Gilman.
Source: https://www.newsweek.com/if-trump-refuses-leave-white-house-secret-service-escort-1545612
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